Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 4.429842 5.186192 6.022006 7.012649 8.153235 9.423730 10.944614
2025-09-28 3.182738 4.177458 5.395258 6.988989 9.012167 11.486660 14.733545
2025-10-05 2.653768 3.827177 5.389130 7.603353 10.641359 14.640189 20.274789
2025-10-12 2.178711 3.409918 5.171438 7.844822 11.761378 17.242551 25.434859
2025-10-19 1.836850 3.090346 5.001010 8.077974 12.847750 19.881701 30.933278
2025-10-26 1.536288 2.762242 4.742262 8.107088 13.594771 22.074128 35.999433
2025-11-02 1.254067 2.401869 4.359933 7.859694 13.843812 23.498064 40.010926
2025-11-09 1.010828 2.057369 3.938671 7.466438 13.773617 24.369086 43.191875
2025-11-16 0.853224 1.837143 3.693255 7.329900 14.100701 25.898176 47.582294
2025-11-23 0.732845 1.664515 3.503925 7.259329 14.520594 27.608565 52.432767
2025-11-30 0.674456 1.606789 3.523577 7.582110 15.694787 30.757312 60.120028
2025-12-07 0.595458 1.489089 3.403129 7.607124 16.294936 32.908729 66.187828
2025-12-14 0.523979 1.377150 3.282547 7.626196 16.909396 35.196503 72.837854
2025-12-21 0.461108 1.273250 3.163512 7.633159 17.504708 37.520599 79.821621
2025-12-28 0.451404 1.298691 3.339360 8.312250 19.595157 43.018636 93.595165
2026-01-04 0.415676 1.249912 3.334134 8.579042 20.824497 46.888325 104.454230
2026-01-11 0.383125 1.202809 3.324954 8.834022 22.055712 50.879239 115.933878
2026-01-18 0.343133 1.126311 3.229575 8.866229 22.779408 53.856273 125.550100
2026-01-25 0.295029 1.015279 3.025856 8.597516 22.760511 55.206793 131.783287
2026-02-01 0.247649 0.895034 2.775812 8.170020 22.300055 55.516016 135.740201
2026-02-08 0.217044 0.820599 2.639331 8.021563 22.509694 57.369962 143.335049
2026-02-15 0.192707 0.761052 2.535033 7.944821 22.890788 59.657923 152.130913
2026-02-22 0.183628 0.752264 2.580209 8.295831 24.431474 64.859530 168.209007